Bangladesh erupts after Sharif Osman Hadi’s death. Anti-India protests, visa center closures and Yunus govt under pressure in Dec 2025.
The Dhaka Shift 2025: From street violence to diplomatic crisis. How Bangladesh’s Yunus government is changing India relations.
Yunus era reshapes Bangladesh in 2025. Analyze anti-India protests, Islamist rise and China-Pakistan tilt impacting New Delhi.
Bangladesh Crisis 2025: Yunus Era, Anti-India Protests aur Dhaka Power Shift ka Complete Analysis
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| Bangladesh Crisis 2025: Yunus Era, Anti-India Protests aur Dhaka Power Shift ka Complete Analysis |
By the third week of December 2025, Bangladesh appears to be standing at a critical crossroads where political experimentation, popular rage, and geopolitical realignment are colliding simultaneously. What was once projected as a transitional, stabilising arrangement after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s long-standing Awami League government has, by the end of 2025, evolved into one of South Asia’s most volatile political situations.
The interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has neither delivered political stability nor ensured social calm. Instead, it has coincided with a sharp deterioration in India–Bangladesh relations—ties that, for nearly a decade, were considered among the strongest in the region.
A Power Vacuum and the “Minus Two” Politics
From its earliest months, the Yunus government signalled that its ambitions went beyond merely administering a transition. The emerging strategy—widely described as the “Minus Two” formula—aimed to marginalise both the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) simultaneously.
This attempt to hollow out Bangladesh’s two dominant political forces created a widening vacuum. Into this space stepped hardline Islamist groups, newly emboldened after restrictions on organisations such as Jamaat-e-Islami were lifted. Anti-India rhetoric, once confined to fringe actors, steadily entered the political mainstream, becoming a regular feature of street mobilisation in Dhaka.
A Death That Ignited the Streets
The simmering tensions exploded after a single, catalytic event. On December 12, 2025, a shooting in Dhaka left Sharif Osman bin Hadi—a prominent youth leader of the “July Uprising” and convenor of Inqilab Mancha—critically injured. He died six days later, on December 18.
His death quickly transcended the boundaries of a criminal investigation. Within hours, protests erupted across major Bangladeshi cities. Demonstrators alleged that the attackers were Awami League operatives acting from Indian territory. New Delhi’s Ministry of External Affairs rejected the claims outright, but by then the narrative had already taken hold on the streets.
From Street Protests to Diplomatic Flashpoints
What began as public anger soon escalated into a diplomatic crisis. Demonstrators marched on the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, while assistant high commissions in Rajshahi and Chittagong also came under pressure. Security threats became so acute that Indian Visa Application Centres in Khulna and Rajshahi were shut down indefinitely.
This marked a qualitative shift: India-Bangladesh tensions were no longer confined to rhetoric or policy disputes. Indian diplomatic and consular assets had become direct targets of popular mobilisation.
Sectarian Violence Amid Political Chaos
As political unrest gripped the country, a disturbing episode of communal violence further deepened the crisis. On December 18, in Mymensingh, a Hindu man named Dipu Chandra Das was lynched by a mob over alleged blasphemy.
The following day, Yunus condemned the killing, declaring that “there is no space for violence in the new Bangladesh,” and announced several arrests. Yet the incident reinforced fears—particularly in India—that law-and-order mechanisms were failing, and that minority communities were increasingly vulnerable. Talk of a possible refugee influx into Indian border states resurfaced once again.
Drifting Away from India, Courting New Partners
Parallel to domestic turmoil, Bangladesh’s external orientation also appeared to be shifting. Relations with Pakistan warmed visibly, symbolised by Bangladesh’s participation in Pakistan’s multinational naval exercise Aman-2025 and the revival of direct maritime trade routes between Karachi and Chittagong—bypassing Indian transit hubs.
China, meanwhile, moved swiftly to consolidate its influence. Beijing secured new infrastructure and river-management projects and extended financial assistance at a moment when Bangladesh was grappling with a foreign-exchange crunch. Indian-backed projects stalled, while Chinese engagement expanded.
The Direct Impact on India
The consequences of these developments were felt sharply in New Delhi. Indian exporters faced delayed payments as Bangladesh’s dollar crisis deepened. The Akhaura–Agartala rail link—once hailed as a symbol of regional connectivity—remained non-operational. The Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant suffered repeated shutdowns due to coal shortages and payment disputes.
Most significantly, transit facilities that allowed India to move goods to its northeastern states through Bangladesh were curtailed or suspended. India was forced to accelerate alternative connectivity plans, including greater reliance on the narrow Siliguri Corridor.
On the Edge of 2026
By late December 2025, it was clear that the coming year would be decisive for Bangladesh. Elections, if held, could produce a fractured mandate in which Islamist parties hold the balance of power. If elections are delayed, unrest may intensify to the point where the military feels compelled to intervene more directly.
Either outcome carries profound implications—not only for Bangladesh’s internal stability, but for the strategic environment along India’s eastern flank.
What should India do in this situation?
Security First
Ensure uncompromised protection of the Indian High Commission and missions in Dhaka, and maintain zero tolerance with strict vigilance along the border to prevent infiltration or extremist activities.
Broad Diplomatic Engagement
Smart Economic Leverage
Human Rights–Based Internationalization
Strategic Patience & Information Warfare
Conclusion
What is unfolding in Dhaka is no longer merely a story of domestic political transition. It is a regional security concern with ripple effects across South Asia. For India, the lesson of December 2025 is stark: assumptions built on a decade of close partnership can no longer be taken for granted.
Borders, connectivity, and diplomacy will all require recalibration. The “Dhaka Shift” is no longer a theoretical construct—it has become a lived geopolitical reality.
Bangladesh Crisis, Yunus Government, India Bangladesh Relations, South Asia Politics, Anti India Protests, Geopolitics, Bangladesh News 2025
